🤔 Second Order Thinking
Story + ChatGPT Prompt | Wisdom Letter #253
In a world of increasing complexity, the ability to make sound decisions is more crucial than ever. While first-order thinking—considering only the immediate consequences of our actions—is our default mode, it often leads to short-sighted choices.
What we really need is second order thinking.
Let’s understand second order thinking with a short story -
The Farmer's Fence: A Parable of Second-Order Thinking
In a small village, there lived two farmers, Ava and Ben. Both had fields bordered by an old, crumbling stone wall that kept their sheep from wandering off.
One day, a violent storm damaged large sections of the wall. Ava and Ben each had to decide how to address the problem.
Ava, known for her quick decisions, immediately hired workers to rebuild the wall with stone, just as it had been before. "This will keep my sheep safe," she thought, satisfied with her swift action.
Ben, however, took a different approach. He sat on a hill overlooking his field, pondering not just the immediate problem, but potential future scenarios.
"If I rebuild the stone wall," Ben mused, "it will indeed keep my sheep in. But what if there's another storm? I'll be in the same situation again. And stones are expensive and labor-intensive to work with."
Ben considered alternatives. "What if I planted a thick hedge instead? It would take longer to grow, but it would be more resilient to storms. It would provide shelter for beneficial insects and birds, which could help control pests in my fields. The hedge might even bear fruit, giving me an additional crop."
After careful consideration, Ben decided to plant a hedge. He temporarily used a simple wooden fence to contain his sheep while the hedge grew.
Years passed. Ava's stone wall, while initially sturdy, required constant maintenance. During particularly harsh winters, sections would crack and crumble, needing expensive repairs.
Ben's hedge, on the other hand, grew strong and thick. It weathered storms well, bending with the wind rather than breaking. It attracted wildlife that helped keep his crops healthy, and he even harvested berries from it each year, which he shared with his neighbours.
Moreover, other farmers in the village, seeing the success of Ben's approach, began to adopt similar methods, leading to a greener, more resilient landscape throughout the community.
Ben's choice, born from careful consideration of second-order effects, had created value in ways he couldn't have fully predicted, but which came about because he looked beyond the immediate problem and solution.
Second-order thinking involves considering not just the immediate results of an action, but also the subsequent effects—the "consequences of the consequences." It's about asking, "And then what?"
Why it matters?
Second order thinking helps -
Avoid unintended consequences
Make more strategic, long-term decisions
Anticipate potential problems and prepare for them
Gain a competitive edge by seeing beyond the obvious
Of course, the goal isn't to predict the future perfectly, but to expand your thinking and make more informed decisions.
Second Order Thinking - AI Prompt
I’ve designed a prompt that you can use with any AI chatbot like ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini and train it to help you take better decisions.
It will help you take a broader perspective of a big decision and understand its second and third order consequences.
It will even nudge you to ask reflective questions of yourself.
The prompt is too long to paste here, copy it from this page -
Just copy the prompt from the Notion page above, and paste it into a an AI chatbot, and then type in the big decision you’re about to take.
And see the magic!
Further Reading
Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform | Farnam Street
Mastering Second-Order Thinking for Smarter Life Choices | Living Your Greatness
Second Order Thinking explained in 2 minutes -
From the Archives
3 interesting posts from The Wisdom Project archives -
Last weeks top link -
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See you next week 👋
We’ll be back with more interesting notes, highlights and curations.
Cheers,
Ayush & Aditi